So Adduplex data is out and here we again try to predict Windows Phone volumes based on Adduplex data for the month of July. Keep in mind this data may be skewed towards newer devices as it is based on application usage, but with help of a factor to remove the skew we reached close to actual volume for last quarter.
first the necessary basic assumptions/data.
- Assuming 3.5 million sold WP devices are not in active use now, total no. of active WP devices till Q1 2013 is about 25 million. WP devices sold in Q2 are close to 8.5 million or more but we will take a figure of 8 million for Q2 here. Hence no. of WP devices in the market by end of June = 33 million. Assuming 1 million devices again become inactive during this period, it gives us a figure of 32 million active devices.
Now, from June to July the WP8 devices share has grown from 61% to 65% and assuming just 0.4 million WP7 device sold in July, we can calculate total WP devices by end of July,
=((39*32)+0.4)/35 = 36.8 million WP devices which gives us a 4.8 million device sold in July.
While assuming no WP7 sales during July takes us to total 35.7 million WP devices by end of July, giving 3.7 million devices sold in July.
In case you are wondering how many Lumia 520 were sold in July,
=((35.7*18)-(32*13.3))/100= 2 million approximately.
In case we consider a 30% skew towards WP8 devices in Adduplex data on average, Lumia 520 sold becomes = 2*0.7 = 1.4 million.
Lumia 520′s dominance is not surprising considering the fact that Nokia has for the first time succeeded in keeping supplies consistent for this hot seller device in many markets.