Q4 2012 Smartphone sales predictions:
Last we tried to find out how many Lumia WP8 devices Nokia might have sold in Q4 2012 and it seems Nokia may have sold 4 million Lumia WP8 devices including Lumia 920, 820, 822 and 810 in Q4.
So, we need to find out how many Lumia WP7.5 devices and Symbian devices were sold for predicting total smartphone sold by Nokia in Q4 2012.
Lumia 800 has been a star performer for Nokia in Q4 around the world. Adduplex’s stats for November and December show that Lumia 800 has kept its share constant at 18% while other WP7 devices have seen their share eroding. Only Lumia 510 has seen its share rising from 1 to 2 % from November to December.
In our earlier article, we have used following numbers for calculation.
Total WP7 and 8 device no. till Q3 2012- 18.5 million
Total WP7 and 8 device no. till Q4 2012- 28 million
WP Devices sold in Q4 – 9.5 million. It may distribute as 1.25 : 4 : 4.25 across, October : November : December, considering “Steve Ballmer’s statement that WP8 sales started 4 times better and during christmas time, it was around 5 times better than Q4 2011 ( 2.75 million)”.
So, it seems Lumia 800 may have sold, 3*0.18*4.25= 2.3 million devices.
Lumia 510 has increased its share from 1 to 2% from November to December.
So, it may have sold 28 *0.02 = 0.56 million devices, since it was launched only in November.
Adding other WP7 devices’ Lumia 900, 710 and 610 probable sales figures to this we may reach to a WP 7 Lumia sales figure of apprx 2.3 +.56 + 1.2 = 4 million Lumia WP7 devices to be exact.
Coming to Symbian devices, last quarter Nokia sold 3.4 million Symbian devices, and we predicted that Symbian may again hit 2 million devices sales even in Q4 2012. Now, we think that Symbian sales may have been slightly affected after launch of Lumia 510 in Symbian strongholds like India, China etc. So, may be Symbian sold 1.8 million devices.
Hence, finally it looks like Nokia may have sold 4 million WP8 + 4 million WP7 + 1.8 million Symbian devices = 9.8 million Smartphones in Q4 2012.
Only one disclaimer here: Shipments which Nokia usually reports in Financial results may vary from actual sales numbers, as devices sold in particular quarter may have been shipped earlier as well.